A Multipolar Future: Asia’s Increasing Engagement in the MENA Region

The traditional dominance of Western influence in the MENA region is gradually being replaced by the rising Asian powers

The BRICS organization has transitioned from an informal meeting of five large emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – into a semi-formal organization, as demonstrated by the Johannesburg summit in August 2023. This transition has occurred through the BRICS+ format, which allowed the group to expand its membership to five new countries. While Saudi Arabia has received an invitation to join, it is still considering whether to accept it. The momentum continued at the Kazan summit in October 2024, with the creation of a “BRICS Partner Countries” initiative that has extended invitations to Turkey, Indonesia, Algeria, Belarus, Cuba, Bolivia, Malaysia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Vietnam, Nigeria, and Uganda.

The expanded framework of the BRICS+ countries signals an intent to deepen the bloc’s institutionalization, echoing past milestones such as when the BRICS established the New Development Bank in 2014 and the Contingency Reserve Agreement in 2015. Current initiatives, including BRICS Bridge and BRICS Pay, aim to develop financial and monetary cooperation mechanisms that provide alternatives to the Western-dominated international financial system. Furthermore, the BRICS express interest in advancing collaboration in cutting-edge technologies, particularly in artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and the space industry.

The financial and monetary dimension is perhaps the most promising avenue for the BRICS+ to bring meaningful changes and disrupt the existing Western-dominated global order. This process has already begun through low-profile initiatives within the bloc, such as bilateral transactions in local currencies and swap agreements between central banks. However, there is further scope for novel, tech-driven developments and innovations, including the use of digital currencies, smart contracts, and other financial technologies. The capital-rich petrostates of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could provide the necessary resources to support these endeavors, as it would be useful to consolidate their position as new regional and global hubs for finance and energy. 

The shift in GCC economic ties is evident. The primary clients for Gulf countries  oil are now non-Western powers like China and India, and Dubai has already surpassed Geneva as the go-to hub for East-West oil purchases and oil-backed financial transactions. In this context, the integration of the UAE and, potentially, Saudi Arabia into the grouping could be a game-changer. For Iran, it could offer an end to the financial isolation imposed by long-standing – and potentially escalating – Western sanctions. For cash-starved and debt-laden Egypt, it presents an opportunity to diversify its financing sources beyond its traditional Western partners and the Western-aligned multilateral organizations like the IMF and the World Bank.

The BRICS also reflect the growing technological divide and fragmentation between the United States and China, with the EU trailing as a secondary player dependent on the US for critical technologies. The restriction on the use of Huawei and TikTok, as well as the limitations on advanced US microprocessor technology and venture capital exports to China, have bipartisan support in the US, as evidenced by the Biden administration’s continuation and escalation of the “Trump I” administration. Under the coming “Trump II” administration there will likely be even tighter restrictions compounded by tariff hikes on Chinese goods.

The future of this global confrontation, which appears to be intensifying, will affect the evolution and position of the BRICS as a group as well as the impact on single members – including the MENA new joiners. As a matter of fact, in sharp contrast with previous diversification efforts, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have invested increasing amounts of capital to catch up and gain an edge in the new AI-centered global technological race. Access to the most advanced hardware will be critical in this regard, leading countries to take uneasy choices, as hinted by the UAE’s G42 decision to losen its ties with Chinese technology companies. However, in the longer term, the most likely scenario is one in which these emerging powers will continue to navigate tensions between to US and China to advance their interests and diversify their economic and technology partners.

Beyond these economic and technological dimensions, it could be argued that the BRICS represent a geopolitical counterweight to the West. There is evidence to support this view. Prominent members of the BRICS+, such as China, Russia, and Iran, are also members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Similarly, Russia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates are members of OPEC+. These two latter organizations are manifestly not aligned with the West and have been created to challenge Western dominance, respectively in the energy and security field. In contrast, other original BRICS members like Brazil, India, and South Africa maintain strong ties and strategic partnerships with the United States. While this may temper the notion of the BRICS as  “alt-world” bloc in the short term, it also underscores that these emerging powers are increasingly positioning themselves for a multipolar, post-Western world.

A way to resolve this tension is to refer to the concept of multi-alignment. As many countries navigate an increasingly fragmented world, joining the BRICS might be viewed as hedging against over dependence on the West and to  benefit from the newly emerging non-Western-led economic and financial cooperation schemes. Additionally, it could offer a safeguard from  the economic stagnation of Western Europe, to which the Middle East and North African countries are particularly exposed through various channels, as well as from the increasingly protectionist turn in the United States. Despite tensions between some of its members, such as China and India, at present, an association with the BRICS+,  might be perceived as a safe and low-risk choice in the path toward a multipolar world.

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